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EUR/USD Weekly Analysis: Bearish Outlook Lingers

AnalyticsTrade Team
AnalyticsTrade Team Last updated on 20 Sep 2023
Category: EUR/USD
bearish outlook

Table of Contents

bearish outlook

bearish outlook

Main Takeaways:

  • The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure due to the ECB’s cautious stance on rate hikes.
  • From a technical perspective, key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) signal a bearish trend.
  • Market focus now shifts to the upcoming FOMC rate decision for guidance.

Weekly Recap

Last week, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend, primarily influenced by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) conservative approach to raising interest rates. While the ECB did raise rates by 25 basis points, it also expressed a degree of caution, implying that rate hikes will only continue until specific economic targets are met. This cautious stance hints at a more measured pace in ending the rate-hike cycle, potentially supporting the Euro.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD’s trajectory remains bearish, especially as it remains below critical Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Although the price recently found support around 1.0633, the probability of testing the next support level at 1.0515 remains substantial. The market closely watches these SMAs for signs of a trend reversal or a sustained upward movement.

Market Sentiment and the FOMC Impact

The prevailing market sentiment regarding the EUR/USD is heavily influenced by central bank actions. All eyes are now on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision, scheduled for the upcoming week. This event holds the potential to provide clear direction for the currency pair. Any hints of a dovish or hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve could significantly impact market volatility and the EUR/USD’s trajectory.

Comparison Table: ECB vs. FOMC

Rate Hike Cautious with potential for more hikes Upcoming decision awaited
Inflation Target Focus on achieving the target Uncertain impact on inflation
Market Sentiment Caution may favor the Euro Key determinant of USD strength

As illustrated in the comparison table above, the ECB’s cautious approach to rate hikes and commitment to reaching the inflation target offer potential support for the Euro. Conversely, the pending FOMC rate decision is a pivotal factor influencing the strength of the USD. Traders should closely monitor these developments and consider their implications for their trading strategies.


The EUR/USD currency pair faces sustained downward pressure, primarily due to the ECB’s recent stance on interest rates. Technical analysis underscores the significance of key SMAs in shaping the pair’s direction. Market sentiment now hinges on the impending FOMC rate decision, which could introduce heightened volatility. Traders and investors must remain vigilant, employing appropriate trading tools and trading strategy to navigate the evolving forex landscape.


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